Macroeconomic Forecast - January 2026
Summary of the Forecast
English version of the January Macroeconomic Forecast will be released in the week of 26 January.
The global economy is experiencing stable inflation, rising real incomes and increasing household consumption expenditure. Thanks to the easing of restrictive monetary conditions, investment activity is gradually picking up, but it is being dampened by persistent geopolitical uncertainties and barriers to international trade.
Although tensions in international trade have eased following an agreement between the United States and the European Union, uncertainties remain in relation to tariff measures and restrictions on exports of critical technologies and strategic raw materials, particularly between the United States, China and other Asian economies. In the European context, the fiscal and tax package in Germany represents a positive impulse, which should support economic growth in the coming years not only in the German economy, but also in other EU Member States, including the Czech Republic.
Real GDP growth in the Czech Republic, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, accelerated to 2.8% year on year and 0.8% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2025. Year-on-year growth was driven almost exclusively by domestic demand.
For 2025 as a whole, GDP is likely to have increased by 2.5%. The year-on-year decline in the savings rate and the increase in real incomes were reflected in stronger growth in household consumption. Investment activity was driven by public investment, which, in addition to investment from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, was also supported by the acceleration of the current financial perspective of the European Structural and Investment Funds. The renewed accumulation of inventories and the government consumption also contributed positively to economic growth. The foreign trade balance is likely to have had a negative impact on GDP growth, mainly in connection with higher imports due to growing consumer demand and the expected increase in inventories. In 2026, economic growth could slow slightly to 2.4%. Growth should continue to be driven exclusively by domestic demand. In addition to continued growth in household consumption, we expect a revival in corporate investment activity, which will, however, also increase the volume of imports. Exports will be limited by increased trade barriers and low export orders. The contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth should therefore remain negative.
The average inflation rate in 2025 reached 2.5%. While the growth in prices of services was elevated, the growth in prices of goods was subdued, mainly due to lower energy prices – electricity, natural gas and motor fuels. This year, the anti-inflationary development of energy prices will be significantly enhanced by the transfer of the financing of the fee for supported energy sources fully to the state budget. Inflationary pressures will continue to be mitigated by monetary policy, the expected continued decline in the dollar price of oil, and the further strengthening of the koruna. On the other hand, pro-inflationary factors include the continuing dynamic growth in wages, an increase in household disposable income and persistently high price dynamics for services, mainly due to strong growth in the costs of owner-occupied housing and rents. The average inflation rate could fall to 2.1% this year, mainly due to a reduction in the regulated component of electricity prices.
Despite partial imbalances related to labour shortages, the unemployment rate is rising slightly on the labour market and could reach 2.8% in 2025. Strong demand for labour in services and construction will continue to mitigate the negative effects of problems in industrial sectors. This year, the unemployment rate could remain at 2.8%. Persistent frictions between supply and demand in the labour market continue to support wage and salary growth. Real earnings are expected to increase in both 2025 and 2026.
The current account of the balance of payments ended the third quarter of 2025 with a surplus of 0.7% of GDP. The year-on-year deterioration in the external balance was due, among other things, to a reduction in the goods surplus, which was driven by growth in imports of consumer goods and a higher volume of imported materials. Exports were limited by lower export orders in the manufacturing industry. In addition to domestic demand and export orders, the current account will also be influenced by the tariffs imposed on imports to the United States, which will limit exports from European Union countries. We therefore estimate that the current account ended 2025 with a surplus of 0.6% of GDP. For this year, the positive balance could further moderate to 0.3% of GDP, aided by reviving investment activity.
The continuing economic recovery and the austerity measures adopted had a positive impact on the government sector's finances in 2025. Despite increased defence spending, higher social benefits and the costs of flood damage repair, this should result in the same year-on-year deficit of 2% of GDP. Public debt continued to grow and is expected to reach 44.6% of GDP.
We consider the risks to the economic growth forecast to be skewed to the downside overall. The main uncertainties include geopolitical tensions, tariffs and other barriers to international trade, and energy price volatility. Another risk factor may be a change in the fiscal policy stance of European Union member states, particularly Germany, as well as persistent price growth in services.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current forecast | Previous forecast | |||||||||
| Nominal GDP | bill. CZK | 5 828 | 6 308 | 7 050 | 7 660 | 8 058 | 8 524 | 8 957 | 8 510 | 8 940 |
| nominal growth in % | -1,0 | 8,2 | 11,8 | 8,6 | 5,2 | 5,8 | 5,1 | 5,6 | 5,1 | |
| Gross domestic product | real growth in % | -5,3 | 4,0 | 2,8 | 0,0 | 1,3 | 2,5 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,2 |
| Consumption of households | real growth in % | -6,4 | 4,2 | 0,5 | -2,6 | 2,4 | 2,9 | 3,0 | 3,1 | 3,0 |
| Consumption of government | real growth in % | 4,1 | 1,5 | 0,4 | 3,2 | 3,1 | 2,1 | 1,9 | 2,1 | 1,6 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | real growth in % | -4,8 | 6,7 | 6,3 | 4,2 | -2,7 | 0,9 | 3,1 | 0,2 | 3,0 |
| Contribution of net exports | pp | -0,6 | -2,8 | -0,3 | 2,6 | 0,7 | -0,4 | -0,3 | -0,4 | -0,3 |
| Contrib. of change in inventories | pp | -1,2 | 2,8 | 1,2 | -3,0 | -0,5 | 0,9 | 0,1 | 0,9 | 0,0 |
| GDP deflator | growth in % | 4,5 | 4,0 | 8,7 | 8,6 | 3,9 | 3,2 | 2,6 | 3,1 | 2,8 |
| Average inflation rate | % | 3,2 | 3,8 | 15,1 | 10,7 | 2,4 | 2,5 | 2,1 | 2,4 | 2,3 |
| Employment (national accounts) | growth in % | -2,3 | 1,0 | 1,0 | 1,6 | 0,6 | 1,0 | 0,1 | 0,9 | 0,1 |
| Unemployment rate (LFS) | average in % | 2,6 | 2,8 | 2,2 | 2,6 | 2,6 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,7 | 2,8 |
| Wage bill (domestic concept) | growth in % | 0,4 | 7,2 | 9,1 | 8,8 | 6,8 | 7,3 | 6,3 | 7,1 | 5,9 |
| Current account balance | % of GDP | 1,8 | -2,1 | -4,7 | -0,1 | 1,7 | 0,6 | 0,3 | 0,8 | 0,3 |
| General government balance | % of GDP | -5,6 | -5,0 | -3,1 | -3,7 | -2,0 | -2,0 | . | -1,9 | -1,9 |
| General government debt | % of GDP | 36,9 | 40,7 | 42,5 | 42,2 | 43,3 | 44,6 | . | 43,9 | 45,3 |
| Assumptions: | ||||||||||
| Exchange rate CZK/EUR | 26,4 | 25,6 | 24,6 | 24,0 | 25,1 | 24,7 | 24,1 | 24,7 | 24,3 | |
| Long-term interest rates | % p.a. | 1,1 | 1,9 | 4,3 | 4,4 | 4,0 | 4,3 | 4,6 | 4,3 | 4,3 |
| Crude oil Brent | USD/barrel | 42 | 71 | 101 | 82 | 81 | 69 | 61 | 70 | 66 |
| GDP in the euro area | real growth in % | -6,2 | 6,4 | 3,7 | 0,6 | 0,8 | 1,5 | 1,5 | 1,4 | 1,4 |
Tables and Graphs
Preparation of the Macroeconomic Forecasts
Updated: 25. 07. 2013
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Updated: 26.1.2026
Information
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The Macroeconomic Forecast is prepared by the Economic Policy Department of the Czech Ministry of Finance. It contains forecast for the year 2026, and for certain indicators an outlook for the 2 following years (i.e. until 2028). It is published on a quarterly basis (in January, April, August and November).
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Any comments or suggestions that would help us improve the quality of our publication and closer satisfy the needs of its users are welcome. Please send any comments to the following email address: macroeconomic.forecast(at)mfcr.cz
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Cut-off Date for Data Sources: The Macroeconomic Forecast is based on data known as of 15 January 2025.