Macroeconomic Forecast - November 2025
Summary of the Forecast
English version of the August Macroeconomic Forecast will be released in the week of 17 November.
The global economy is currently operating in an environment of gradually weakening inflationary pressures, which supports growth in real incomes and household consumption expenditures. However, investment activity remains subdued due to persistent geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in the area of trade policy, and the lagged effects of tighter monetary conditions.
Although tensions in international trade have eased following the agreement between the United States and the European Union, uncertainties remain regarding tariff measures, restrictions on exports of strategic raw materials, and ongoing trade disputes among major world economies, including China, India, and Russia. In the European context, a positive impulse comes from the fiscal and tax package in Germany, which should support economic growth in the coming years not only in its domestic economy but also in other EU member states, including the Czech Republic.
According to a preliminary estimate from the Czech Statistical Office, the real gross domestic product of the Czech Republic, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, increased by 0.7% QoQ and by 2.7% YoY in the third quarter of 2025. YoY growth was mainly supported by household consumption and gross capital formation, while exports of goods and services contributed to QoQ growth. In the second quarter of 2025, for which detailed data on the structure of growth are available, the Czech economy grew by 2.3% YoY without seasonal adjustment. All main sectors contributed to this growth, particularly services. Household consumption increased due to a lower savings rate, while government consumption grew mainly in central institutions. Investment in fixed capital remained unchanged, but overall gross capital formation was supported by inventory accumulation. Together with rising domestic consumption, this resulted in a dynamic increase in imports, which outweighed strong exports.
In 2025, GDP could increase by 2.4%, primarily thanks to an acceleration in household consumption expenditure, supported by a YoY decline in the savings rate and an increase in real incomes. Economic growth should also be modestly supported by inventory accumulation and government consumption. In 2026, the Czech economy could expand by 2.2% due to a recovery in investment activity and continued household consumption dynamics. Rising domestic demand will simultaneously support imports, while exports will be constrained by tariffs imposed by the United States.
YoY inflation has remained close to the inflation target so far this year. While the growth of service prices remained markedly elevated, goods prices were subdued, mainly due to lower energy prices – electricity, natural gas, and motor fuels. Over the forecast horizon, inflationary pressures will continue to be moderated by monetary policy. Disinflationary effects will also stem from the expected decline in the dollar price of oil and the strengthening of the Czech koruna. Conversely, inflationary factors include continued strong wage growth and persistently high price dynamics in services, driven mainly by the rising costs of owner-occupied and rental housing. The average inflation rate could reach 2.4% this year and slightly decline to 2.3% in 2026.
Despite a slight increase in unemployment, the labour market continues to exhibit partial imbalances associated with labour shortages. Demand for labour in services and construction remains strong, mitigating the impact of problems in certain industrial sectors. The unemployment rate is therefore expected to increase only moderately – averaging 2.7% this year and 2.8% in 2026. The persistent mismatch between labour supply and demand will translate into strong wage and salary dynamics. Real earnings are expected to increase in both forecast years.
The current account of the balance of payments recorded a surplus of 0.8% of GDP in the second quarter of 2025. The year-on-year deterioration of external balance was partly due to a reduction in the trade surplus, driven by rising imports of consumer goods and a higher volume of imported materials. Future developments in the current account will be influenced by domestic demand as well as newly imposed tariffs on imports into the United States, which will limit EU exports. For this year, we expect the current account surplus to decline to 0.8% of GDP. In 2026, the positive balance will further narrow to 0.3% of GDP, reflecting renewed investment activity.
The general government sector is expected to end 2025 with a slightly lower deficit of 1.9% of GDP despite higher spending on education, defence, and transport infrastructure. This will be supported by the government’s adopted consolidation package and ongoing economic recovery. Next year, the overall balance is expected to remain unchanged year-on-year, while the structural balance will remain at the level required by law. Public debt is expected to reach 43.9% of GDP this year and increase to 45.3% of GDP in 2026.
We assess the risks to economic growth as being tilted to the downside. The main uncertainties include geopolitical tensions, tariffs and other barriers to international trade, potential renewed disruptions in supply chains, persistently strong price growth in services, and volatility in energy and raw material prices. Another potential risk factor could be changes in economic policy settings in EU member states, particularly in Germany.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current forecast | Previous forecast | |||||||||
| Nominal GDP | bill. CZK | 5 828 | 6 308 | 7 050 | 7 660 | 8 057 | 8 510 | 8 940 | 8 454 | 8 832 |
| nominal growth in % | -1,0 | 8,2 | 11,8 | 8,6 | 5,2 | 5,6 | 5,1 | 4,9 | 4,5 | |
| Gross domestic product | real growth in % | -5,3 | 4,0 | 2,8 | 0,0 | 1,2 | 2,4 | 2,2 | 2,1 | 2,0 |
| Consumption of households | real growth in % | -6,4 | 4,2 | 0,5 | -2,6 | 2,4 | 3,1 | 3,0 | 3,0 | 2,9 |
| Consumption of government | real growth in % | 4,1 | 1,5 | 0,4 | 3,2 | 3,2 | 2,1 | 1,6 | 1,9 | 1,4 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | real growth in % | -4,8 | 6,7 | 6,3 | 4,2 | -2,8 | 0,2 | 3,0 | 0,1 | 2,9 |
| Contribution of net exports | pp | -0,6 | -2,8 | -0,3 | 2,6 | 0,7 | -0,4 | -0,3 | -0,4 | -0,5 |
| Contrib. of change in inventories | pp | -1,2 | 2,8 | 1,2 | -3,0 | -0,5 | 0,9 | 0,0 | 0,7 | 0,1 |
| GDP deflator | growth in % | 4,5 | 4,0 | 8,7 | 8,6 | 3,9 | 3,1 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,5 |
| Average inflation rate | % | 3,2 | 3,8 | 15,1 | 10,7 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,3 | 2,4 | 2,3 |
| Employment (national accounts) | growth in % | -2,3 | 1,0 | 1,0 | 1,6 | 0,6 | 0,9 | 0,1 | 1,0 | 0,1 |
| Unemployment rate (LFS) | average in % | 2,6 | 2,8 | 2,2 | 2,6 | 2,6 | 2,7 | 2,8 | 2,6 | 2,7 |
| Wage bill (domestic concept) | growth in % | 0,4 | 7,2 | 9,1 | 8,8 | 6,8 | 7,1 | 5,9 | 6,6 | 5,4 |
| Current account balance | % of GDP | 1,8 | -2,1 | -4,7 | -0,1 | 1,7 | 0,8 | 0,3 | 1,2 | 0,5 |
| General government balance | % of GDP | -5,6 | -5,0 | -3,1 | -3,7 | -2,0 | -1,9 | -1,9 | -1,9 | . |
| General government debt | % of GDP | 36,9 | 40,7 | 42,5 | 42,2 | 43,3 | 43,9 | 45,3 | 44,2 | . |
| Assumptions: | ||||||||||
| Exchange rate CZK/EUR | 26,4 | 25,6 | 24,6 | 24,0 | 25,1 | 24,7 | 24,3 | 24,8 | 24,4 | |
| Long-term interest rates | % p.a. | 1,1 | 1,9 | 4,3 | 4,4 | 4,0 | 4,3 | 4,3 | 4,2 | 4,1 |
| Crude oil Brent | USD/barrel | 42 | 71 | 101 | 82 | 81 | 70 | 66 | 70 | 67 |
| GDP in the euro area | real growth in % | -6,2 | 6,4 | 3,7 | 0,6 | 0,8 | 1,4 | 1,4 | 1,2 | 1,3 |
Tables and Graphs
Preparation of the Macroeconomic Forecasts
Updated: 25. 07. 2013
Evaluation of Forecasting History at the Ministry of Finance
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Updated: 6. 11. 2025
Information
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The Macroeconomic Forecast is prepared by the Economic Policy Department of the Czech Ministry of Finance. It contains forecast for the years 2025 and 2026, and for certain indicators an outlook for the 2 following years (i.e. until 2028). It is published on a quarterly basis (in January, April, August and November).
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Any comments or suggestions that would help us improve the quality of our publication and closer satisfy the needs of its users are welcome. Please send any comments to the following email address: macroeconomic.forecast(at)mfcr.cz
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Cut-off Date for Data Sources: The Macroeconomic Forecast is based on data known as of 31 October 2025.