The 38th Colloquium took place in November 2014. Its results are based on the forecasts of 16 institutions. We thank all participating institutions for their cooperation.
According to the latest data, which are based on the national accounts standard ESA 2010 and reflect other methodical changes, real GDP increased by 0.3% QoQ in the second quarter of 2014.
Real GDP increased by 0.8% QoQ in the first quarter of 2014 (gross value added rose at an even faster pace, by 1.1% QoQ), which far surpassed the estimate from the April Macroeconomic Forecast.
The 37th Colloquium took place in April 2014. Its results are based on the forecasts of 17 institutions (MoF, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, CNB, CERGE-EI, Citibank, Ceska sporitelna, CSOB, Generali PPF Asset Management, Czech Chamber of Commerce, IES FSV UK, Komercni banka, Liberalni institut, Next Finance, Patria Finance, Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic, UniCredit Bank Czech Republic & Slovakia). To make the survey more representative, the forecasts of the EC (Winter 2014 European Economic Forecast), the IMF (April 2014 World Economic Outlook) and the OECD (OECD Economic Surveys: Czech Republic 2014) have been added.
According to the CZSO’s current data, real GDP decreased by 0.9% in the whole of 2013. The surprisingly strong QoQ growth of 1.8% in Q4 2013 was largely a product of one-off factors (stockpiling cigarette tax stamps as a consequence of an increase in the excise tax on cigarettes as of 1 January 2014).
According to the CZSO’s current data, real GDP rose by 0.2% QoQ in Q3 2013, but it continued to fall in annual terms. We estimate that economic recovery continued also at the end of 2013.