Macroeconomic Forecast - January 2013

• Macroeconomic Forecast - January 2013PDF (1007kB)
• Summary of the Forecast-2013-Q1PDF (123kB)
• Risks to the Forecast-2013-Q1PDF (82kB)
• A - Forecast Assumptions-2013-Q1PDF (367kB)
• B - Economic Cycle-2013-Q1PDF (243kB)
• C - Forecast of the Development of Macroeconomic Indicators-2013-Q1PDF (238kB)
• D - Monitoring of Other Institutions’ Forecasts-2013-Q1PDF (113kB)

Tables and Graphs

• Tables and Graphs-2013-Q1PDF (393kB)
• C.1 Economic Output-2013-Q1PDF (171kB)
• C.2 Prices-2013-Q1PDF (173kB)
• C.3 Labour Market-2013-Q1PDF (159kB)
• C.4 External Relations-2013-Q1PDF (160kB)
• C.5 International Comparisons-2013-Q1PDF (137kB)

Macroeconomic Forecast in a Nutshell

• Macroeconomic Forecast in a Nutshell - January 2013PDF (369kB)

Structure of the presentation

• Forecast Assumptions
  • risks of the forecast
  • external environment
  • fiscal policy
  • monetary policy, interest rates and exchange rates
  • structural reforms
• Economic Cycle
• Forecast of Macroeconomic Indicators
  • economic output
  • inflation
  • labour market
  • external relations

Source: MOF - Financial Policy Department, January 2013.

Evaluation of Forecasting History at the Ministry of Finance

• AnalytIQ – tools to assess the MoF forecasts’ accuracy and much moreZIP (259kB)

• To run, the application requires Microsoft Excel 2010 or Microsoft Excel 2007. Macros need to be enabled.

Information

• The Macroeconomic Forecast is prepared by the Financial Policy Department of the Czech Ministry of Finance on a quarterly basis. It contains a forecast for the current and following years (i.e. until 2014) and for certain indicators an outlook for another 2 years (i.e. until 2016). As a rule, it is published in the second half of the first month of each quarter.
• Any comments or suggestions that would help us to improve the quality of our publication and closer satisfy the needs of its users are welcome. Please direct any comments to the following email address: 
  macroeconomic.forecast(at)mfcr.cz
• Cut-off Date for Data Sources:
  The forecast was made on the basis of data known as of January 10, 2013. No political decisions, newly released statistics, or world financial or commodity market developments could have been taken into account after this date.