Macroeconomic Forecast

The Macroeconomic Forecast is prepared by the Financial Policy Department of the Czech Ministry of Finance on a quarterly basic.

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Published

Macroeconomic Forecast - October 2014

According to the latest data, which are based on the national accounts standard ESA 2010 and reflect other methodical changes, real GDP increased by 0.3% QoQ in the second quarter of 2014.

Published

Macroeconomic Forecast - July 2014

Real GDP increased by 0.8% QoQ in the first quarter of 2014 (gross value added rose at an even faster pace, by 1.1% QoQ), which far surpassed the estimate from the April Macroeconomic Forecast.

Updated

Survey of macroeconomic forecasts – April 2014

The 37th Colloquium took place in April 2014. Its results are based on the forecasts of 17 institutions (MoF, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, CNB, CERGE-EI, Citibank, Ceska sporitelna, CSOB, Generali PPF Asset Management, Czech Chamber of Commerce, IES FSV UK, Komercni banka, Liberalni institut, Next Finance, Patria Finance, Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic, UniCredit Bank Czech Republic & Slovakia). To make the survey more representative, the forecasts of the EC (Winter 2014 European Economic Forecast), the IMF (April 2014 World Economic Outlook) and the OECD (OECD Economic Surveys: Czech Republic 2014) have been added.

Published

Macroeconomic Forecast - April 2014

According to the CZSO’s current data, real GDP decreased by 0.9% in the whole of 2013. The surprisingly strong QoQ growth of 1.8% in Q4 2013 was largely a product of one-off factors (stockpiling cigarette tax stamps as a consequence of an increase in the excise tax on cigarettes as of 1 January 2014).

Published

Macroeconomic Forecast - January 2014

According to the CZSO’s current data, real GDP rose by 0.2% QoQ in Q3 2013, but it continued to fall in annual terms. We estimate that economic recovery continued also at the end of 2013.

Published

Survey of macroeconomic forecasts – November 2013

The 36th Colloquium took place in November 2013. Its results are based on the forecasts of 17 institutions (MoF, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, CNB, CERGE-EI, Citibank, Ceska sporitelna, CSOB, Generali PPF Asset Management, Czech Chamber of Commerce, IES FSV UK, Komercni banka, Liberalni institut, Patria Finance, Raiffeisenbank, Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic, UniCredit Bank). To make the survey more representative, the forecasts of the EC (Autumn 2013 European Economic Forecast), the IMF (October 2013 World Economic Outlook) and the OECD (November 2013 Economic Outlook) have been added.

We thank all participating institutions for their cooperation.

Updated

Macroeconomic Forecast - October 2013

Real GDP, which showed a surprisingly marked QoQ decline of 1.3% in Q1 2013, increased by 0.6% QoQ in Q2 2013. The economy technically emerged from the 18-month recession; however, GDP was 1.3% lower than in Q2 2012.

Updated

Macroeconomic Forecast - July 2013

The Financial Policy Department of the Czech Ministry of Finance envisages gradual economic recovery for H2 2013, GDP should decrease by 1.5% this year, primarily due to the deep slump in Q1 2013...

Published

Survey of macroeconomic forecasts – April 2013

The 35th Colloquium took place in April 2013. Its results are based on the forecasts of 16 institutions (MoF, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, CNB, CERGE-EI, Citibank, Ceska sporitelna, CSOB, Czech Chamber of Commerce, IES FSV UK, Komercni banka, Liberalni institut, Generali PPF Asset Management, Raiffeisenbank, Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic, UniCredit Bank). To make the survey more representative, the forecasts of the EC (Winter 2013 European Economic Forecast) and the IMF (April 2013 World Economic Outlook) have been added.

We thank all participating institutions for their cooperation.